The return to favor of the king of cryptos finally in sight? – What an exceptional week for the course of Bitcoin (BTC) which never ceases to surprise us! On the verge of breaking below $20,000 or the 2017 ATH, it is climbing back towards $28,000, a resistance that the bulls are currently trying to overcome. This could constitute a first turning point in the perspective of a neutralization of the bear run of the king of cryptos since its last ATH in November 2021.
Many investors instinctively believe that successive setbacks in the banking sector have contributed to Bitcoin’s resurgence. However, the main starting point for this rebound would instead be attributed to Circle’s USDC woes. Especially since the depeg of the stablecoin seems to have favored a gradual transfer to BTC.
In a rather breathless market context where bad surprises are coming to the surface, let’s review the latest Bitcoin technical analyzes and alternative scenarios in the days/weeks to come.
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Bitcoin in Weekly Units – Will Bulls Hold Up Above $26,000?
Perhaps this will seem excessive at first sight. Nevertheless, it is clear that Bitcoin, which went very close to hell last week, is coming back in force. To the extent that the bulls would potentially afford a holdup above the resistance of $26,000. As we speak, prices are trading around the $27,000-28,000 zone, then making a mini foray into the Kumo (Ichimoku Cloud).
The bullish candle of the current week which largely shows the dominance of bulls against bears, would revive the possible end of the BTC price status quo under the Kumo. But on the other hand, the Chikou Span will have to wait several weeks or months to hope for a favorable outcome. And first, the Ichimoku Curve, which is tracking 26 weeks behind, could attack the descending line if the king of cryptos were to gain further altitude.
In the event of a favorable polarity change from $26,000 (moving from resistance to support) over the next few weeks, there would be reason to consider the neutralization of Bitcoin’s bear run since its last ATH in November 2021. On the one hand, the crossing of the descending line would be amply validated. And on the other hand, prices would rise inside the Ichimoku cloud and towards $30,000.
Conversely, we should not exclude a false buy signal through a stealthy crossing of $26,000. With fears that BTC price might get stuck in a tidy or horizontal channel that could form between $20,000 and $26,000.
Bitcoin in daily units – The bears caught on the wrong foot!
In daily units, the bears could have had the feeling that things were going well. Especially since the market context was going into a bit of a spin. The $20,000 was in serious jeopardy last week. But unexpectedly, they got caught on the wrong foot by possibly overlooking the consequences of the USDC depeg.
From now on, the price of Bitcoin and the Chikou Span regain their favorable position against the Kumo. And although the rebound has been extremely violent since March 11, the scenario of crossing $26,000 remains relevant. Better still, the future Kumo shows a desire to resume an upward trend provided that the Senkou Span A (SSA) and the Senkou Span B (SSB) deviate significantly to emerge a signal likely to counter a bearish pressure.
In the interest of the bulls, a small consolidation or a lateralization on $26,000 would be beneficial in order to increase the chances of maintaining the excellent rebound since March 11th. With the objective that the king of cryptos will soon fly towards $30,000. On the other hand, a failure below $26,000 would once again signify the bulls’ inability to erase the harsh memory of the spring 2022 corrective wave.
In summary, let’s not be too quick to rejoice in Bitcoin’s strong weekly performance. That being said, the bulls would feel comforted by seeing prices resting firmly on two supports, the $16,000 and $20,000 since the start of the year. Not to mention that a price entry inside the Kumo in weekly units would open the door to a neutralization of the bear run.
The fact that the probability of a FED rate cut has increased at high speed due to uncertainties about the American banking sector, may have momentarily favored a return to grace for the king of cryptos. However, a good week does not definitively reveal a trend.
Investors will have to wait for the next FED meeting on Wednesday March 22 to draw conclusions. And it is only after this macroeconomic event that we will be able to verify a possible decorrelation of Bitcoin from the main risky asset classes. In which case, Satoshi Nakomoto’s digital currency could change status by potentially becoming a true monetary derivative of gold. But if the FED were to prove inflexible as was the case for the ECB the day before yesterday, we would not be immune to a backlash.
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