Can gold benefit from a recession? Will Bitcoin go up again? The Weekly Macro Update

Is the worst over for cryptocurrencies?– Has Bitcoin found its market low at $15,500? Nothing is less sure. However, the king of cryptocurrencies has the possibility of changing dynamics. If the year 2022 will have been catastrophic for cryptocurrencies with different black spots (UST, FTX, etc.), let’s hope that the year 2023 will be less hectic. Let’s go for the Weekly Macro Point!

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After the storm, Bitcoin can regain color?

2022 will have been a tough year for cryptocurrency enthusiasts. In the space of a year, Bitcoin (BTC) went from $69,000 to $15,500i.e. a fall of 77%. The year 2023 has the possibility of being more interesting, but it will take a dynamic change in large units of time. Let’s look at the chart in two-week units:

Bitcoin is in a long-term downtrend.
Bitcoin price against the dollar (2W)

Bitcoin lost several important levels since the beginning of its fall, levels to recover for buyers:

  • Resistance at $19,000 : BTC has a long time bounced back on this level, but the FTX affair caused the price to plunge below $19,000. This is the first fence to cross to find colors on this asset.
  • Resistance at $31,000 : this level was lost last May. In the event of a rebound, operators could take profit important at this level.

Of course, there are other resistors to overcome for buyers, but these two levels will be key. For the moment, the course is bearish and the institutional bias is trending downward. Each price return to the EMA level is rejectedsign of the weakness current bitcoin.

However, it is possible to change the dynamic in a two-week time unit. For this, it is necessary to keep the last lowest at $15,500 and close above $18,400. Of course, it will also be necessary to resume the resistance at $19,000 as support. The road will be long, but Bitcoin is able to surprise us.

Momentum is attempting a break of the bearish trendline. This is the first time since January 2021 that it is possible to break this resistance. We will wait for the confirmation of the breakout of this trendline on January 2, 2023. Also, we will have to find a bullish momentum by breaking the resistance zone at 40 of RSI.

Risk-off: capital continues to turn to gold

The dollar remains feverish, the price is still under the resistance at 105.5 points

It is important to remember that in times of crisisfrom a complicated period as we currently know, traders are turning to less risky assets. However, the dollar is one of the safe haven assets, it has shown it again in 2022:

The dollar index is fragile.
Dollar index chart (3D)

2022 was the year of the dollar in the financial markets. However, in recent weeks, the dynamic has changed. For the first time since June 2021, the institutional bias is ironed bearish, this dynamic should continue for risky assets. The course could join the 102.5 point support in the coming weeks and bounce at that level.

The momentum is bearishit marks a new low under 39.5 of RSI. As long as the momentum is like this, risky assets can profit from it. However, for the moment, it is gold that benefits from the movement of capital. Will 2023 be the year of gold?

Can Gold Quickly Reach $1,900?

The course started in the year 2021 around $1,820the course is currently at $1,805. He knew how to maintain himself in 2022, he could take advantage of the year 2023 to fly away? Capital now seems to be turning to gold :

Gold is close to returning to $1,900.
Price of gold against the dollar (3D)

Gold blocks at the level of the first stop (0.382 Fibonacci retracement) at the moment. If the price closes above $1,825the next objective is at the level of the shorts reload area (0.618-0.786 Fibonacci retracement) between $1,895 and $1,972. This is an area where the price should slow down, especially since there is a strong resistance at $1,970.

Momentum continues its momentum of bottoms and rising tops, there is no no bearish signal at this level for now.

To afford a flamboyant year, gold will have to come out of this tidied up installed since April 2020. If buyers manage to settle above $1,970the year 2023 could be interesting.

The US market has found a new market high, a new wave of declines is coming?

We were talking about it last week, the US market was at levels of resistors important. The course is currently being rejected, have the sellers regained control of the course?

S&P 500 drops below support at $3,900

After being rejected at the level of the bearish trendlinethe price fell below the bracket at $3,900. It’s a new sign of weakness for the S&P 500:

The S&P 500 drops below $3,900.
Price of the S&P 500 against the dollar (3D)

Overall, the dynamic remains bearish for the moment. One rejection was to be expected at the level of the various resistors present, and the sellers have taken advantage of it. the bracket at $3,900 does not seem to hold, the next support is at $3,700. For the buyers, it will be necessary to avoid marking a new low under $3,490. In effect, if the sellers manage to take the price below the last low, new waves of decline could arrive.

The momentum is brittlehe was rejected at the resistance level at 58 of RSI. It will be necessary to exceed this level to find colors on the S&P 500.

The NASDAQ is on the support at $11,000

The NASDAQ has less leeway. Indeed, the price is already close to the October lows:

The NASDAQ is at the support level at $11,000.
NASDAQ price against the dollar (3D)

Like the S&P 500, the NASDAQ has been rejected at the level of bearish trendline. The located resistance
at $12,000 held up, buyers now have to defend the bracket at $11,000. To continue the bullish momentum in the short term, it will be necessary to overcome the resistance at $12,000. On the other hand, if the momentum changes, and the sellers manage to make a new low, the price could reach the next bracket at $9,700.

The momentum is always brittlehe was rejected at the level of the bearish trendline. It will be necessary to overcome this resistance which has been holding since August 2021 to find colors on the NASDAQ.

Bitcoin has the opportunity to change momentum. Indeed, the price must close above $18,400 to regain bullish momentum. Attention, it will also be necessary to establish itself durably above the resistance at $19,000. Capital seems to continue to flow into gold, if the bulls can break out of the first stop, gold could reach $1,900. If the trend continues, 2023 could be the year of gold. The US market is weakening, buyers need to react quickly to avoid further bearish waves. Has the US market already found a market low, or is the worst yet to come? If the decline continues, cryptocurrencies could suffer.

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