The prince of cryptos saved by the bell? – There volatility in full swing around the Ether (ETH) price. In an unfortunate position last Friday, it nevertheless resumed its forward march towards the $1,700a major resistance which the bulls are facing without success so far. Given the damage caused by the Silicon Valley Bank bankruptcy (SVB) on the US banking sector, one could have expected worse. But this unforeseen event could force the FED to revise its monetary policy. This would explain the return to grace of cryptocurrencies, and therefore of a prince of cryptos who just won next to 24% in 72 hours.
Although the latest technical analyzes temporarily dismiss the threat of consolidation below $1,400, the bulls would do well to keep their feet on the ground. Nothing says indeed that the FED is ready to play Santa Claus before the hour. Indeed, its credibility in fighting inflation could explode in midair. But on the other hand, the risk of contagion on the entire US banking sector would drag the economy into a deep recession.
In a market context where the FED would eventually face a dilemma, let’s see how the price of ETH could pull itself out of its slump of the last few weeks or sink deeply below its next supports.
Ethereum on a weekly basis: a fanfare start to the week
Sometimes we have to admit that a badly started situation can turn around at any moment. On the verge of stalling below $1,400, the course of Ether has recovered over the weekend and then started the week with a violent rebound that took the bears by surprise. And as we speak, it’s evolving not far from 1,700 dollars. The bulls are once again dreaming of breaking through this major resistance, with the hope that the turmoil in the banking sector will cease before the next Fed meeting on March 22.
Despite the current attempt to get back above the descending line, it is clear that the course and the Chikou Span always remain stuck under the Kumo (cloud ofIchimoku). Especially since the reasons for this rebound linked to a possible relaxation of monetary tightening by the FED could be questioned. It will be recalled that the American Central Bank recently affirmed that further rate hikes would be in sight to fight inflation.
Assuming we continue the momentum from earlier this week, bulls would potentially get their wishes granted, with BTC price action validating both successive breaks beyond the descending line and $1,700. . And if the rebound widens, it would approach a entrance inside the Kumo which, itself, would constitute a major signal in view of a neutralization of his bear run since his last ATH in November 2021
Conversely, another failure below $1,700 would bring the prince of cryptos back to where he was last Friday. He would put back in the saddle the bears who could knock down their last cards. A $1400 breakout would unfortunately increase the probability of a return towards the $1,200 or its lows of last year, around $1,000.
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Ethereum daily: excessive rebound?
In daily units, the Friday session hangman at $1,400 was followed by three consecutive big upward candles. They allowed the prince of cryptos to rally dramatically towards $1700 and then slightly above the descending line. At the same time, the course and the Chikou Span are taking advantage of this unexpected short-term windfall to iron out above the ichimoku cloud.
However, the fact of climb so fast around 1700 dollars it might seem to us excessive, given a market context that had tightened in the space of a few days. The bulls could still break their teeth under this major resistance. Because by dint of bumping into a wall, they might fear a fatal relapse under $1400 which was recently narrowly avoided.
In this sense, if the price of Ether backpedals once again below 1700 dollars, it would be possible to witness a consolidation which would destroy a good part of the rebound at the start of the year, on the sine qua non condition that the bears are able to sink the 1400 dollars. This would correspond to courses and a Chikou Span that would slide under the Kumo. In this case, we would open the door to the worst-case scenario: the possibility of a new wave of correction in the event of a rapprochement towards the $1,200therefore to an unfavorable chart alignment in both daily and weekly units.
In the event that rumors seriously swell about a possible pause in Fed monetary tighteningthis could finally result in a real regain of form from the prince of cryptos above $1700. Bulls would aim for $2,000 but should watch out for a resurgence of excess buy signals as ETH price moves away from the Tenkan amid fears that the US Central Bank don’t hear it that way at the next monetary meeting.
In summary, the formidable burst of pride in the course ofEther in the direction of $1,700 maintains the prospect of a neutralization of its bear run since its last ATH in November 2021. But the more time passes under this major resistance, the more the bulls are likely to become discouraged, to the point that they would at some point admit their capitulation.
With some important macroeconomic events arriving this week, such as the latest US inflation figures released in the early afternoon, we would possibly have future indications on theevolution of the Fed’s monetary policy. A good number could ease tensions in the financial markets ahead of the March 22 FOMC meeting… in which case the prince of cryptos would maintain his recent favorable momentum with the idea of breaking out of the 1700 dollars. On the other hand, a bad number would probably cool the bulls. And that would provide arguments for the US central bank to raise rates. Thus, the threat of a rally in the ETH bear could resurface.
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