Gold and Bitcoin on the rise, banks tumble – Le Point Macro Hebdo

A new financial crisis to fear? – THE Bitcoin surprises and shows a rise of 25% within a few days. This violent movement liquidated many sellers, and it may not be over. Can Bitcoin continue to climb in this delicate context? The dollar is weakening. Can risky assets benefit? This is the Weekly Macro Point!

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$80 million liquidated on the sell side of Bitcoin

With this large-scale movement, bitcoin explodes sellers laggards with levers.

$80 million was liquidated on March 13, 2023
Liquidations on Bitcoin Source: Coinglass

On March 9, the market saw the biggest day of Bitcoin buying liquidation since December 2022. A few days later, the market decides to clear out the shorts. Finally, $83 million were liquidated on March 13, 2022. This is a significant amount, but it remains lower than the day of January 14 with 140 million dollars liquidated on the seller side.

Bitcoin Recovers Below $20,000 and Climbs 25%

To everyone’s surprise, the Bitcoin (BTC) recovers below $20,000 and with manner. Indeed, in just a few days, the price rose by 25%.

Against the dollar, Bitcoin climbs 25% in a few days
Bitcoin price against the dollar (3D)

The movement was so rapid that the institutional biasI (EMA 9/EMA 18) did not even have time to cross downwards. The course resumes at the level of the bearish trendline And blocked at the top of the range at $24,200. It is a fragile movement in “V-bottom”. It will again be necessary to build momentum with bottoms and rising tops. To do this, a return to the level of the next support at $21,700 seems possible. On the other hand, if the buyers bend the sellers at the resistance level, then the price could soar towards the next weekly resistance at $28,800.

The RSI bounced off the level of the bullish trendline. The general trend is maintained for the moment. Here again, it will be necessary to find a momentum with troughs and ascending peaks.

In the very short term, Bitcoin is changing above resistance at $23,900.

In the very short term, Bitcoin could reach the next resistance at $25,000
Bitcoin price against the dollar (4H)

The course of BTC rode in a straight line, breaking the different resistance in its path. He is currently above $23,900. If the buyers push, the price could well end up at the resistance level at $25,000. On the other hand, if the price goes back below 23,900 dollars, the sellers could regain control. Therefore, a return to the level of next support at 22,500 dollars seems possible. Traders who bought below $20,000 will take profits sooner or later. We have to do be careful not to FOMO here.

The break of the bearish trendline on the RSI brought a lot of volatility to the price. The RSI is in overbought zone. You have to be vigilant in the short term.

Risk off: the dollar falls, gold rebounds

The dollar no longer seems to be the asset that attracts capital. If this was the case in 2022, the situation is different in 2023.

The dollar stalls at the resistance level at 105.5 points

Bitcoin rises against the dollar and, in parallel, the dollar index falls. The dollar is weakening and that’s good news for risky assets, like Bitcoin. The course is rejected at the level of the weekly resistance at 105.5 points.

The dollar index is rejected at the resistance level at 105.5 points.
Dollar index chart (3D)

After a nice rebound at the level of the 102.5 point support, the dollar index is stuck at the resistance level. With the momentum being bearish since the end of 2022, this may be a top on the dollar. If so, the price could continue to fall and reach the next support at 102.5 points. To confirm the downtrendit will also be necessary to mark a new low, below the last low at 100.8 points.

The RSI could continue on the dynamic initiated at the end of the year. At the moment, the lows and highs are descending. The momentum must continue.

Gold bounces off the first stop level at $1,830

I’gold is one of the safe haven assets. In times of uncertainty, such as the present, it is supposed to be attractive. It has been evolving for several years between $1,700 and $2,000. Are traders hoarding gold? The course has recently bounced back the level of first stop (0.382 Fibonacci retracement).

Gold rebounds at the first stop level.
Price of gold against the dollar (3D)

The price rebounds at the level of the first stop at $1,830. The institutional bias remains bullish in 3-day time units. The price could quickly find itself at the level of the weekly resistance at $1,970. It is this resistance that the buyers must break to resume the bullish primary momentum. After such a long period of accumulation, gold could go up in value in the months to come. Be careful though! The sellers have the possibility to mark a double top at the resistance level. It will therefore be necessary to watch the reaction of the price to the resistance level.

The RSI sent a bearish signal with the break of the bullish trendline. Need to build bullish momentum again with ascending lows and highs.

Against Bitcoin, Gold Continues to Weak.

Against Bitcoin, gold weakens.
Gold price against Bitcoin (3D)

The year 2022 was very bullish on the Gold/Bitcoin pair. The year 2023 looks different, because the dynamic East bearish For now. In the coming weeks, the price may return to the weekly support level. For lovers of risky assets, it would be interesting to return to the weekly range.

The US market falls with the banks

The banking sector is in a tumble after the Silicon Valley Bank bankruptcy.

The banking sector on the brink after the bankruptcy of the Silicon Valley Bank.
The banking sector is having a bad day because of the bankruptcy of the Silicon Valley Bank

We see it. It’s a whole sector that is on fire. Such volatility is extremely rare in the US market, and it doesn’t bode well. In this context resembling the crisis experienced in 2008the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ weaken.

S&P 500 drops below $3,900

THE financial markets know a complicated periodand this carries over to the S&P 500.

S&P 500 drops below $3,900
Price of the S&P 500 against the dollar (3D)

During the previous edition, the course was stuck between $4,195 and $3,930. With this close below the last low, the S&P 500 changes momentum. Also, the price falls again below the bearish trendline. With this bearish movement, it seems likely to find the course at the level of the next support at $3,700.

The RSI has been contracting for over a year. The resolution of the contraction could bring a lot of volatility to the financial markets. In the coming weeks, the RSI may join the bullish trendline. A rebound could then appear.

NASDAQ holds around $12,000

The NASDAQ seems stronger than the S&P 500. For the moment, the course retains the support at 12,000 dollars.

The NASDAQ is stronger than the S&P 500.
NASDAQ price against the dollar (3D)

Despite a fall below from the last low to $11,860, the price does not close below at this time. If the financial markets continue to fall, the price could find itself at the level of the next support at $11,000. THE ROI is quite solid. He’s back at the level of the bearish trendline. We should avoid going below the bearish trendline.

THE Bitcoin surprises operators and climbs 25% in just a few days. Attention ! The course is at the level of a resistance, and sellers could therefore regain control in the short term. In parallel, the dollar is falling, and that’s a good thing for risky assets, like Bitcoin. On his side, gold bounces back at the first stop. It will be necessary to see if the price prepares a double top at the level of the resistance at $1,970 or if buyers finally manage to break this resistance. Against Bitcoin, gold changes momentum and continues to weaken. The US market trembles with the Silicon Valley Bank bankruptcy. If the government wants to protect users, will they be able to reassure investors or will this bankruptcy lead to other banks?

Jerome Powellthe chairman of the Federal Reserve (FED) of the United States, will have to think carefully about the next rate hike. The context is clearly not favorable to a significant rate hike. Yet theinflation is always present.

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Last Verdict

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