Is Bitcoin (BTC) eyeing a comeback to $18,400? The Weekly Macro Update

LAre risky assets attractive again? – Bitcoin surprises with this 40% increase since the beginning of 2023. Moreover, this increase is taking place in a tense context, since the platform Genesis is going bankrupt. Bitcoin is approaching important resistances, a break could be in place. What are the interesting levels to watch for Bitcoin? Can the dollar continue to fall? This is the Weekly Macro Point!

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Bitcoin is soaring

The course of Bitcoin (BTC) shows a rise of more than 50% from the lowest marked at $15,500. After a nice rally, can Bitcoin continue to climb without a retracement?

Bitcoin is bullish against the dollar.
Bitcoin price against the dollar (3D)

Bitcoin is back at the level of the bearish trendline initiated at the end of 2022. This has rejected the course several times, you have to be vigilant. As long as the price is below this trendline, sellers have the opportunity to regain control. Bitcoin is facing a dual resistance with the presence of resistance to $24,200. This resistance pushed the price back in July and August 2022, it could block again. Let’s not forget that buyers of the bracket at $16,500 are looking to take profits, and this area seems to be interesting for secure profits.

Since the change in momentum initiated thanks to the close above $18,400, buyers have the upper hand in the short term. Warning, a return at the level of the neck line is to be considered, Bitcoin comes very often to retest this level. Bitcoin is around the bearish trendline, a rejection here would cause the price to return to the level of the bracket at $20,500. If the buyers push and manage to break the resistance at $24,200Bitcoin could climb up to $28,800 even $31,000.

The momentum is bullish, there are no alarming signals at the moment. On the other hand, the RSI is in the zone of overbought. This is an area that leads, sooner or later, to a bit of a retracement. In period of bullmarket, the RSI can remain in the overbought zone for a long time. Apart from this period of strong increase, it is necessary to be careful.

King Bitcoin leaves the exchanges

analysis on chain makes it possible to identify the flows at the level of the exchange platforms. Bitcoin seems to be leaving the exchanges :

Bitcoin leaves the exchanges.
Deposits (green) and withdrawals (red) in Bitcoin on exchanges

Bitcoin continues to leave exchanges, with amounts higher than previous bear markets. The actors seem optimistic for the future of cryptocurrencies and decide to take their Bitcoin out of the exchanges.

The dollar no longer attracts capital, gold continues to be strong

The dollar is moving below the support at 102.5 points

The lesson weakens since the end of the year 2022. However, it is close to a support important :

The dollar is below the support at 102.5 points.
Dollar index chart (3D)

The dollar slips dangerously below the support, but a rebound remains possible. In the event of a rebound, the institutional bias (EMA 9/EMA 18) could to reject the price and definitely bring it below the weekly support. As long as the dollar falls, risky assets like cryptocurrencies can benefit. The momentum is bearish. The RSI continues to mark descending highs and lows.

Could Gold Soon Take a Break?

Gold was the first asset to benefit from the fall in the dollar. The dynamic is bullish in the short term, but gold could pause in an area where players can take profit :

Gold is bullish in the short term.
Price of gold against the dollar (3D)

The course is in uptrend from the level break to $1,730. Gold has deviated below the bracket at $1,690it is now close to the resistance at $1,970. Also, the course is in the shorts reload area (0.618-0.786 Fibonacci retracement). This area is conducive to sellers, it seems possible that the price will mark pause. For the moment, the price of gold remains stuck in a tidied up Between $1,690 and $1,970.

The momentum is bullishthe RSI is above the bullish trendline. Moreover, the troughs and peaks are ascending, there is no no bearish signal.

The US market remains strong

The S&P 500 at the contact of the bearish trendline

Buyers are not giving up, the S&P 500 remains above the bracket at $3,900. However, the bearish trendline could reject the course soon:

The S&P 500 is in contact with the bearish trendline.
Price of the S&P 500 against the dollar (3D)

The S&P 500 is still in downtrend. To try to change the dynamic, buyers will have to push to break the bearish trendline and the resistance at $4,100 (green arrow scenario). If they don’t succeed, a new low on this asset cannot be ruled out.

The momentum is building up contractof the volatility could happen when the triangle breaks. For buyers, it will be necessary to start with a fence above 59 of RSI.

NASDAQ needs to break resistance at $12,000

The NASDAQ needs to break resistance at $12,000.
NASDAQ price against the dollar (3D)

Like the S&P 500, the NASDAQ is in downtrend since the beginning of 2022. Buyers have the opportunity to change dynamics, this will require breaking the resistance at $12,000. In case of rejection at the resistance level, the price could fall to the level of the bracket at $11,000. A rejection would not be a good sign and would show feverishness buyer side.

The RSI is attempting a breakout of the triangle. If the RSI continues to move above this bearish trendlineof the buying volatility could be set up. Could it be time for buyers to take control? It remains to be confirmed on the buyer side.

Bitcoin has the opportunity to push to the next resistance at $24,200. The neckline of the “W” at $18,400 has still not been retested, a return to that level is not unlikely. On-chain analysis suggests many bitcoins are leaving exchanges, a level not seen in thehistory of the king of cryptocurrencies. The dollar is at a support zone, this zone should break for lovers of risky assets. For its part, gold continues to climb towards the resistance at $1,970, the price could soon mark a break. The US market remains solid, but resistances are very close to the course. If the buyers do not confirm by continuing to push, new lows could arrive in 2023.

Bitcoin is tough and resilient. Tomorrow or in some time, you will be happy to have bought some during the crisis. Don’t wait too long to take advantage of the current buying conditions, and save another 10% on your trading fees by following this link! Run to register on BinanceTHE absolute benchmark for crypto exchanges (commercial link).

Last Verdict

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