Is Bitcoin (BTC) in danger below $22,500? The Weekly Macro Update

The calm before the storm in the cryptocurrency market?- For several days, the price of Bitcoin not move, or almost. Price is moving below $22,500, sellers are holding their hand for now. Could volatility pick up again in the coming days and weeks? What are the key levels on Bitcoin and risky assets? Can the dollar fall to important resistance levels? This is the Weekly Macro Point!

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Bitcoin volatility is very low and stagnates around $22,400

Bitcoin Volatility Analysis

Since a few months, Bitcoin (BTC) volatility decreases. When we observe the graph of the volatility of Bitcoin, we notice that the volatility evolves between two limits. When the volatility is at the upper bound, the volatility is high, and when the volatility is at the lower bound, the volatility is low. Currently, volatility is at the level of the support :

Bitcoin has very low volatility currently.
Bitcoin Volatility Chart (1W)

At the end of 2022, volatility fell below the level of support historical. This shows that volatility was extremely low, but since the beginning of January 2023, volatility has bounced back. Currently, volatility is at the support level, we can think that it could continue to increase in the weeks and months to come. After experiencing a period of declining volatility, the situation could change. In effect, a cycle of rising volatility could begin with this reaction at the beginning of the year.

Bitcoin remains in a short-term downtrend

No matter what, Bitcoin is still stuck under the resistance at $25,000 :

Bitcoin needs to change momentum if buyers are to break resistance at $25,000.
Price of Bitcoin against the dollar (1D)

The course was rejected at the level of the resistance at $25,000. Since then, in daily time units, the dynamic has been bearish. Indeed, with the fence below $22,700, Bitcoin scored an “M top”. From now on, it will be necessary to wait for a change of dynamics to find colors. However, looking back to December 2022, the situation remains encouraging. Lows and highs remain ascending. Buyers should hold the last low marked at $21,350. Moreover, to continue on the momentum, it will be necessary for the buyers to push to make a new high, higher than the previous one at $25,200.

Momentum diverges from the last peak above $25,000. This made it possible to note that the movement was running out of steam, and we can see that the sellers took advantage of it. The stochastic approaches the oversold zonethis could help revive buyers.

In 4H time unit, we see that the zone to $22,500 done now resistance :

The level at $22,500 must be taken back in 4H.
Bitcoin price against the dollar (4H)

Last week, we mentioned the fact that it was necessary to resume the level at $23,900. The resistance held, and this is the bearish scenario that has taken place. Currently, the price is below the rack at $22,500, we should resume this level on the buyers side. If this level holds, the next support is at $21,500. If buyers manage to regain the level at $22,500 as support, the next level of resistance it is located at $23,900.

The momentum is still in the hands of the sellers. The RSI is located below the bearish trendlineit would have to give way for buyers to regain strength.

The dollar is at an important resistance level, gold rebounds

The dollar is stuck at the resistance level at 105.5 points?

Since the dollar has rebounded, cryptocurrencies and the US market have struggled to express themselves. For Bitcoin to resume a bullish momentum daily, and that he can finally break the resistance to $25,000, the dollar must weaken. Currently, the dollar is at the level of a resistance important:

The dollar index is at an important resistance level at 105.5 points.
Dollar index chart (3D)

THE institutional bias (EMA 9/EMA 18) is always bearish. However, it would require a rejection at the level of the resistance to prevent the course from joining the next resistance at 108.5 points. In case of rejection, the price could return to the level of the 102.5 point support. Whatever happens, it would take a rejection that allows to close below the last low. If so, cryptocurrencies and risky assets in general could perform.

The RSI rebounds, but it remains fragile. In fact, the overall trend remains bearish and a rejection could happen sooner or later. We will have to be attentive to a possible change in dynamics on the RSI.

Gold bounces off the first stop level at $1,830

As explained last week, the first stop (0.382 Fibonacci retracement) is an interesting level for buyers. The course is currently in the process of bounce at this level :

Gold is bouncing back to the first stop level.
Price of gold against the dollar (3D)

After a rejection at the level of weekly resistance at $1,950the price returned to the level of first stop. This is a favorable level for buyers, and the price is in the process of bounce. Whatever happens, it will be necessary to close above $1,960 to revive the momentum and break the weekly resistance. Also, it will be necessary to keep the last trough at $1,800.

The momentum is trying to bounce, but it is still quite timid. The RSI would need to show momentum with bottoms and tops rising. To begin with, one would have to grow above 54.5.

The US market tries to rebound

The S&P 500 maintains bullish momentum?

Certainly, from the top to $4,195the S&P 500 fell more than 6%. However, the dynamic remains bullish for the moment since the rebound at the level of the bracket at $3,500 :

The S&P 500 is still bullish.
Price of the S&P 500 against the dollar (3D)

As we can see, the troughs and the peaks remain ascending from the lowest marked at $3,500. There bearish trendline was broken, and the price rebounds on this trendline. From now on, it is necessary to pass over the resistance at $4,100 and close above the last peak at $4,195. Be careful all the same, in the event of a fence below $3,930, the sellers would regain control of the price (red arrow scenario). In this case, a return to the level of the bracket at $3,700 would be conceivable.

The momentum is very solid for several months, but the RSI remains stuck below the bearish trendline. Also, we see that the level at about 59 of RSI is still resisting. It will be necessary to break the resistance and the bearish trendline to regain buying strength. This could make it possible to find volatility.

NASDAQ bounces off support at $12,100

Like the S&P 500, the NASDAQ is rebounding:

The NASDAQ is bouncing off the support level at $12,100.
NASDAQ price against the dollar (3D)

Here again, the dynamic remains bullish For now. Buyers should keep the last low at $11,860. To rekindle the momentum, the buyers are going to have to push and close the price above the latest high at $12,860. This would also break the resistance and the first stop. On the other hand, in the event of a close below $11,860the price would change momentum and it could reach the level of bracket at $11,000.

Unlike the S&P 500, the NASDAQ RSI broke the bearish trendline. Buyers have their hands on the momentum, need to keep developing bottoms and ascending tops. For this, it will first be necessary to close above 62.

All in all, Bitcoin remains in a short-term downtrend. It is necessary to take back the level at $22,500 in 4H to avoid falling towards the next support at $21,500. The dollar is moving at a resistance level, the price should run out of steam and start to fall again. If the dollar falls, risky assets could benefit. For its part, gold is rebounding at the level of the first stop, a return close to the weekly resistance is possible. The US market continues to be bullish since the end of 2022, the price maintains a momentum with bottoms and rising tops.

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Last Verdict

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